降雨和地震條件下淺層黃土滑坡三維穩定性評價
首發時間：2020-09-24
李泊良（1997-），男，碩士，主要從事黃土滑坡研究
張帆宇 1張帆宇（1983-），男，教授，主要從事滑坡災害研究
摘要：在我國西北黃土地區，受黃土遇水強度驟降的影響，淺層黃土滑坡分布廣泛且頻發，已造成大量人員傷亡和財產損失。通常降雨和地震是黃土滑坡最頻繁和最活躍的觸發因素。近年來，降雨和地震耦合作用誘發大量黃土滑坡的事件在黃土高原也時有發生。盡管地震和降雨耦合效應下會嚴重加劇淺層黃土滑坡的失穩概率和災害風險，但是當前仍缺少對這類滑坡事件的定量災害評價研究。因此，本文以蘭州市大沙溝流域淺層黃土滑坡為研究對象，整合降雨滲透模型到黃土斜坡三維確定性模型中，評價不同降雨和地震耦合效應研究區淺層黃土滑坡穩定性，用混淆矩陣法和ROC曲線法評價穩定性評價預測的結果。本研究結果發現，整合降雨入滲和地震影響的三維確定性模型，對流域尺度淺層黃土滑坡穩定性評價具有較好效果，能作為降雨和地震誘發黃土滑坡災害評價和早期預警的工具，對加強不同尺度極端事件下黃土滑坡災害時空災害評價和預測具有重要參考價值。
關鍵詞： 地質工程 淺層黃土滑坡 地震 降雨 滲透模擬 穩定性評價
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Three-dimensional stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides under rainfall and earthquake conditions
李泊良（1997-），男，碩士，主要從事黃土滑坡研究
Zhang Fanyu 1張帆宇（1983-），男，教授，主要從事滑坡災害研究
Abstract：In the loess area of northwestern China, affected by the sudden water intensity of the loess, shallow loess landslides are widely distributed and frequent, landslides caused a large number of casualties and property losses. Usually rainfall and earthquakes are the most frequent and active triggers for loess landslides. In recent years, a large number of loess landslides have been induced by the coupling of rainfall and earthquakes on the Loess Plateau. Although the coupling effect of earthquake and rainfall will seriously aggravate the instability probability and disaster risk of shallow loess landslides, there is still a lack of quantitative disaster evaluation research on such landslide events. Therefore, this paper takes the shallow loess landslide in the Dashagou watershed of Lanzhou City as the research object, integrates the rainfall penetration model into the three-dimensional deterministic model of the loess slope, and evaluates the stability of the shallow loess landslide in the study area with different rainfall and seismic coupling effects. Method and ROC curve method to evaluate the results of stability evaluation prediction. The results of this study found that the integration of a three-dimensional deterministic model of rainfall infiltration and earthquake effects has a good effect on the stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides at the watershed scale, and can be used as a tool for the assessment and early warning of rainfall and earthquake-induced loess landslides. It is of great reference value to strengthen the spatiotemporal disaster assessment and prediction of loess landslide disasters under different scales of extreme events
Keywords： geological engineering shallow loess landslide earthquake rainfall seepage simulation stability evaluation
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